A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Each authors two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid points, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
