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PHEVs produce almost 5x greater global warming emissions than official figures indicate, as per a new analysis.

Growing Gap In Official and Real-World Emissions

Statistics reveals that PHEVs release just one-fifth lower CO₂ than traditional petrol and diesel vehicles, based on research carried out by a non-profit organization. This differs sharply with laboratory tests, which suggested a three-quarters decrease in pollution.

Researchers studied information from in-vehicle fuel consumption meters of eight hundred thousand vehicles registered in Europe from 2021 and 2023. They found that real-world CO₂ emissions from PHEVs in 2023 were 4.9 times greater than official figures, increased from 3.5 times in 2021.

“Actual CO2 output are increasing, while official figures are decreasing,” said a senior researcher participating in the report. “That gap is widening and poses a significant issue. As a result, PHEVs pollute nearly as much as petrol cars.”

Primary Factors Behind the Discrepancy

Analysts attributed the majority of the gap to inflated estimates of the “electric driving share” – the percentage of kilometers driven in battery power relative to overall mileage. The team found that just 27% of travel was completed in EV mode, while official assumptions suggested 84%.

Additionally, when operating in EV mode, pollution amounts were well above official projections. This happened because EV motors were insufficiently powerful sufficient to function alone, resulting to combustion motors using gasoline for almost one-third of the travel completed in EV mode.

Policy and Financial Implications

Based on calculations, the lowballing of PHEV CO2 output enabled several large carmaker companies to avoid over €5bn in fines between 2021 and 2023, by falsely simplifying adherence with EU fleet-average CO₂ targets.

Furthermore, drivers of PHEVs would pay about €500 extra annually in running costs than would be assumed under lab tests.

“The bold statements that manufacturers often promote about their plug-in hybrid cars are clearly far from the mark,” commented a automotive analyst. “Consumers are being duped into believing that by buying a PHEV, they are benefiting the planet and cutting costs. Actually, PHEVs are only slightly better than standard gas and diesel vehicles in terms of fuel use, CO₂ emissions, and operating costs.”

Political Debate and Industry Pressure

Hybrid vehicles have lately been drawn back into policy debates as carmakers have pressed the European Union to relax CO₂ targets. A planned prohibition on new combustion engine vehicles in 2035 has faced heavy pressure from the car industry and resistance from member states with significant car manufacturing.

Some high-level officials have suggested plug-in hybrids as a possible “flexibility” option to introduce in the regulation.

An external energy economics expert, who was unaffiliated with the study, called the report a “very useful addition” after a long period in which segments of the automotive sector claimed there was insufficient information to properly assess actual CO2 output.

“These findings show, beyond any doubt, that the difference between official and actual PHEV energy use and CO₂ emissions is much, much greater than for gasoline or diesel vehicles,” the expert said. “All policy changes regarding PHEVs should be made with utmost caution and considering that evidence.”